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Allan's Philosophy Podcast

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Phun-size Philosophy # 71 – Predictions

Predictions are basically forecasts or foretellings in a statement or claim that a particular event in more certain terms will occur. If you make a prediction you are then making something known in advance. Making a prediction is pretty much taking a guess. One example is predicting what’s going to happen and it can really be about any topic you could possible think of. The catch is that the situation has to be unclear about the outcome or it is currently unknown to you at the point in time in which you make the conjecture. One of the most basic examples of this that I have personally faced many times is guessing how many skittles are in a jar. Guesses usually apply to the future but it doesn’t always have to be that way. This is because instances of which you don’t know what will happen are always prevalent in the realm of the future but you can also not know about what happened in the past or present and make guesses about them in that regard. If that is the case then you will get a better and more accurate detailing of the actual outcome of what you are guessing about because it already happened. If you are predicting about the future you will need to wait until the time comes to verify if your prediction was correct or not. When making a prediction you should use your intuition and knowledge to take an educated guess. They are of huge importance in order to increase your accuracy and chances of being correct. When talking about guesses I need to refer to insider information. When there are stakes on the line with guesses and bets (when you place your possessions on the line as a wager in hopes that your guess is more likely to happen then the next guy’s prediction) everyone involved doesn’t necessarily have the same knowledge or understanding of the situation. When a horse racer watches a horse race, they will probably know who is more likely to win than I will. This creates an unequal playing field and gives him a greater chance of winning whatever I put up for grabs by betting. Insider information is a form of this unequal playing fields and it is illegal in the respect to get a leg up on the competition. Specifically in insider trading, you trade, usually stocks, with some type of information you have received internally that gives you a better idea of what is most likely to happen in the near future. While nobody knows exactly how the future will turn out, planning and being the change you want to happen in the future is a huge way in increasing the odds that your predications become a reality. Check out more at!

-Allan Nicholas

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